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Increasing concerns are present regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which numerous people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Amid persistent challenges from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that moves to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

There have been little evidence of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the defense force, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the conflict was concluded – a decision that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

But relations have later worsened anew.