Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
